Why the Detroit Lions present unique challenge to Rams’ offense

One of the bigger narratives surrounding the Los Angeles Rams’ explosive offense is their newfound love of 13 personnel—one running back, three tight end sets. The Rams almost never used 13 personnel under head coach Sean McVay—only 84 times during McVay’s first nine seasons. But this year, the Rams lead the NFL in plays with 13 personnel, with a whopping 170 snaps—or 21.4% of the time. The league average 5.25%.

Last week against the Arizona Cardinals, that number jumped to 60%. Why? Well, the Rams’ offense has been trending in that direction more and more as of late. It also loosens the load off of their explosive receiving corps, and with the Rams jumping out to a big lead last Sunday, they wanted to drain the clock with their running game.

But McVay also noted that with the way the Cardinals were playing the Rams—stubbornly staying in nickel (five defensive backs)—they knew they’d be able to run the ball against Arizona.

“They came out in a lighter grouping, and they basically dared you to run it based on what they were doing,” McVay said Tuesday. “And to the guys’ credit, (center) Coleman (Shelton), the offensive line, Matthew (Stafford), and the rest of the tight ends and the receivers on the field, they did a good job of being able to recognize it and get good, efficient runs early on.”

The Rams finished with 249 rushing yards, 6.9 yards per carry, and three rushing touchdowns against the Cardinals. Per SumerSports, the Rams rank top-10 in both pblocking (0.34 EPA/pblock, eighth) and rushing efficiency (0.13 EPA/rush, fourth) out of 13 personnel.

Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell knows of another benefit to using so much 13 personnel. It helps tip off what the defense is going to do.

“I think there’s predictability in 13. Normally, you know what you’re going to get,” Campbell said. “Sometimes in 12, you don’t know if you’re going to get nickel or base defense. So, that’s another reason. They know what they’re going to attack. They know probably the defense, the fronts, the coverages, that helps. And they’ve got tight ends. They’ve got some tight ends that are versatile and do a little bit of everything, that’s always going to help.”

In short, 13 personnel forces more defenses to play in base (four defensive backs), which gives the offense an advantage knowing they’ll be facing heavier personnel—which many opponents may not want to do.

But the Lions are different. Detroit lives in heavy, base formations more often than any other team—regardless of what offenses are throwing at them. Per Sharp Football, the Lions live in subpackages (like nickel) at the lowest rate in football (35%). They believe they have the personnel to be able to stop the run and defend the pblock with three linebackers on the field. And so they don’t view 13 personnel as a particular threat to get them out of their comfort zone.

“When I hear a lot of 13 personnel, that they’re trying to dictate stuff,” Lions linebacker Jack Campbell said on Wednesday. “Because you only have a limited menu (against 13). I can’t speak for other defenses in the NFL, but usually, you have a limited menu in 13 personnel, because not a lot of teams run it. You’re going to get base (defense) out there. You’re going to probably get three linebackers out there, which we play a majority of the time. So it’s not really going to matter.”

Jack Campbell admitted the Rams operate out of 13 personnel in a very complicated way, often using their players much like they would in 12 or even 11 personnel, because their tight end group is extremely talented and versatile. But, again, he reiterated that the Lions’ defense is uniquely prepared against 13 looks.

“It’s going to be a challenge, but at the same time, it’s not really—in my opinion—going to affect us terribly, just because I feel like we’re used to playing with three linebackers already,” Jack Campbell continued. “We kinda have some calls into that. We can mesh it on in, and the guys who are out there are versatile players.”

Of course, McVay already knows Detroit’s tendency to stay in base. So it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rams play a little less 13 against the Lions’ defense. For as much attention as they’re getting in 13 personnel, McVay offenses are more historically defined by their heavy use of 11 personnel (three wide receivers). And despite their recent uptick in 13, the Rams still use 11 personnel at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this year (66.8%).

But they aren’t as efficient running the ball out of those sets (0.03 EPA/rush, 17th), meaning the Lions could force them out of their comfort zone on Sunday, as long as they remain a strong run defense in base. And if the Lions can slow the Rams’ rushing attack, it could be the key to pulling off a big road upset.