The end of Dan-istan: Newspoll shows Labor set to be wiped out at Victorian state election

Victoria’s Labor government has been dealt a devastating blow, with a bombshell Newspoll suggesting the Coalition is on track for a landslide victory at November’s state election.

The survey, conducted between October 15 and October 22 from a sample of 1,017 voters, put the Coalition ahead of Labor by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

The result marked a deterioration for Labor from July’s poll, which showed the government trailing by 52 per cent to 48 per cent – already a sharp fall from its 2022 election result.

Labor’s primary vote collapsed to just 24 per cent, down four points since July and 13 points below the 37 per cent it secured at the last state election.

The Coalition’s primary vote rose to 33 per cent, up two points since July and only slightly below the 34 per cent recorded by the Liberals and Nationals in 2022.

Minor parties also continued to gain ground. One Nation surged to 20 per cent, making it one of the biggest beneficiaries of voter discontent, while the Greens lifted to 14 per cent.

If the swing were replicated uniformly across Victoria, the Coalition would comfortably win government in its own right and could pick up more than 20 seats from Labor.

The result is expected to intensify concerns within Labor ranks after the party installed Ben Carroll as Premier in a bid to reset the government’s fortunes following Jacinta Allan’s departure.

Despite the leadership change, Labor’s electoral position appears to have worsened.

Carroll debuted with a deeply negative net approval rating, with just 30 per cent of voters viewing him favourably and 58 per cent holding an unfavourable opinion, giving him a net rating of minus 28.

Despite this, Carroll remains ahead of Allan’s position in July.

The former premier recorded a net approval rating of minus 46, the worst result ever recorded for an Australian leader in Newspoll.

That poll ultimately proved fatal to Allan’s leadership and triggered her resignation as Premier.

Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continued to strengthen her standing with voters.

Her favourable rating rose two points to 49 per cent, while her unfavourable rating remained unchanged at 39 per cent.

Wilson also maintained a commanding lead as preferred premier.

The poll found 48 per cent of voters backed Wilson for the state’s top job, compared with 34 per cent for Carroll.

The result builds on Wilson’s strong performance in July, when she led Allan as preferred premier by 51 per cent to 32 per cent.

The poll is a significant setback for Labor’s election campaign, with the party attempting to tie the Coalition to One Nation in a bid to stem its collapsing support.

On Monday, Labor launched an advertisement claiming the Coalition would need One Nation’s backing to form government.

‘Polls show the Liberals and One Nation cannot govern without each other,’ the advertisement states. 

Labor has sought to draw a line under its previous years in government and present Ben Carroll as a fresh start for voters.

Carroll officially launched Labor’s election campaign on Sunday, criss-crossing Victoria aboard a bright red campaign bus emblazoned with the slogan ‘New Premier, New Direction’.