AIPAC Targets Progressive Democrat in Race to Replace Swalwell

The sleepy suburbs east of San Francisco have suddenly become the latest battleground in the ideological fight over the future of the Democratic Party.

Super PACs, including two with ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, have flooded the region with millions of dollars in advertising ahead of a special election on Tuesday to determine who will replace Eric Swalwell in Congress for the next few months.

In California’s 14th congressional district, Aisha Wahab, a progressive Democratic state senator, is facing off against Melissa Hernandez, a moderate Democrat who sits on the Bay Area Rapid Transit board. The two Democrats are vying to fill out the remainder of Mr. Swalwell’s term after he resigned abruptly in April amid allegations of blockual misconduct as he was running for California governor.

Ms. Wahab seemed to be the clear front-runner after she emerged from the June primary with 43 percent of the vote compared to 17 percent for Ms. Hernandez.

But the sudden influx of cash, not just from AIPAC but also from another super PAC created to counter the group, has turned the race into an unexpected brawl between the establishment and progressive wings of the Democratic Party. It comes just two weeks after Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat, narrowly won the Senate primary in Michigan in the face of AIPAC’s hefty support for his moderate opponent.

Neither Ms. Wahab nor Ms. Hernandez have made Middle East politics a focus of their campaigns.

But in recent weeks Ms. Wahab has found herself fending off $2.9 million in attacks from outside groups, much of it coming from the United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s main super PAC. The group has also spent more than $825,000 supporting Ms. Hernandez.

Ms. Wahab, 39, is the first Afghan American and Muslim elected to the California State Senate. During a candidate forum in April, Ms. Wahab said “yes” when a moderator asked if she considered “what is happening to the Palestinian people a genocide.”

Ms. Hernandez, 51, responded by saying that she believed Israel had the right to defend itself after the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. “However,” she said, “the destruction in Gaza has gone too far.”

Like the candidates, the super PACs have not focused on Israel in their advertising in the race.

Instead, one ad funded by the AIPAC super PAC accused Ms. Wahab of watering down legislation that sought to stiffen penalties against child block predators. Ms. Wahab responded that she had helped make it “illegal and a felony to traffic or solicit minors.”

Another super PAC called Bold America, which has received some funding from AIPAC’s group, has spent $2.4 million supporting Ms. Hernandez and opposing Ms. Wahab.

Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for AIPAC’s super PAC, did not return a call seeking comment.

American Priorities, a super PAC created to counter pro-Israel spending, put $200,000 into supporting Ms. Wahab. “Don’t buy the Republican AIPAC lies,” says an ad from the group, which has backed left-wing critics of Israel in congressional primaries in New York. Ms. Wahab has also received support from J Street Action Fund, a liberal Jewish organization.

AIPAC has become such a polarizing player in Democratic politics that drawing attention to its spending in the race could help Ms. Wahab in her heavily Democratic district in Northern California, said Noah Finneburgh, a Democratic political consultant in the East Bay who is not involved with either candidate.

“I definitely think that those attacks could backfire,” he said.

In total, groups have spent $4.9 million on television and digital advertising in the run-up to Tuesday’s special election, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. Even more has been spent on mailers, text messages and phone calls, campaign finance disclosures show.

The two candidates did not return calls seeking interviews.

Both candidates have filed complaints with the Federal Election Commission. Ms. Wahab has asked regulators to investigate a rash of social media posts that she claimed made false statements about her and may have been spread by fake bot accounts. Ms. Hernandez alleged that Ms. Wahab unlawfully transferred money from her state-level campaign account through a county Democratic committee to hide corporate donations.

Ms. Wahab was endorsed by the California Democratic Party and has support from several labor unions and Our Revolution, the left-wing group founded by Senator Bernie Sanders. Mr. Sanders’s group said it planned to fan out across the East Bay this weekend to support Ms. Wahab.

Both candidates have emphasized a desire to work in Washington on lowering costs for Americans. Ms. Wahab has said she wants to “end pointless wars” that cost tax dollars and drive up consumer prices. Ms. Hernandez has said she would prioritize small businesses and pledged to bring “fiscal discipline” to Washington.

The winner of Tuesday’s election will serve the remainder of Mr. Swalwell’s term, which ends in January. Ms. Wahab and Ms. Hernandez will face off again in November for the two-year term that begins that same month.