(Analysis) The latest developments in China’s leadership have sparked a surge of rumors about the future of Xi Jinping’s rule.
This story draws on official statements and authoritative sources to separate fact from speculation, focusing on the business and power implications of recent events.
Xi Jinping, who has led China since 2012, did not attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 6, 2025.
This marks the first time he has missed this annual gathering since taking power. China’s foreign ministry attributed his absence to scheduling conflicts, and Premier Li Qiang represented China instead.
However, ***ysts and observers point to deeper reasons behind this decision. China’s economy faces significant headwinds, with industrial profits dropping 9.1 percent in May 2025 compared to the previous year.
Consumer spending remains weak, and the real estate sector continues to struggle. The country also faces unpredictable trade tensions with the United States, which threaten to escalate tariffs and disrupt global supply chains.
These economic challenges demand Xi’s attention at home, but his absence from a high-profile international event has fueled speculation about his grip on power.
Military Shakeups and Questions of Control
The rumors gained traction as several senior military officials disappeared from public view. General He Weidong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the third most powerful figure in China’s military hierarchy, has not been seen in public since March 2025.
Official sources suggest he is under investigation, a common euphemism for internal purges in China’s political system. The Chinese government has not issued a formal explanation for his disappearance.
This follows the earlier removal of Admiral Miao Hua, another top CMC member, and a series of leadership changes in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including the Rocket Force and Western Theatre Command.
These moves raise questions about elite political stability and the mechanisms of control at the highest levels of China’s military.
BRICS Summit in Rio: Few Leaders, Vague Statements, No Major Moves
Signs of Internal Party Struggles
Since 2013, Xi has purged hundreds of officers from the PLA, often citing corruption. He installed loyalists in key positions and restructured the military to centralize authority.
However, the current wave of dismissals, many for vague “disciplinary violations,” suggests either a renewed effort by Xi to root out threats or a loss of control over the armed forces.
General Zhang Youxia, the first vice chairman of the CMC, now appears to hold significant influence.
Reports indicate that Zhang, once considered an ally of Xi, is ***erting greater control over the military, backed by senior Communist Party figures tied to former President Hu Jintao’s era.
Analysts note that Xi has struggled to remove Zhang, who commands respect within the PLA due to his experience and connections.
The PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese military, published a series of articles in 2024 emphasizing “collective leadership” and “democratic centralism.”
These articles stressed the importance of decision-making by party committees rather than by a single leader. The commentary specifically stated that “no individual can override the leadership collective,” a message that some interpret as a challenge to Xi’s one-man rule.
However, others argue that these articles reflect compliance with Xi’s campaign to promote “democratic centralism” as a tool to curb corruption and maintain party unity within the military.
The true intent behind these publications remains a subject of debate, but they highlight the ongoing struggle for authority within China’s top leadership.
Xi’s Unraveling Authority Ignites a U.S.-China Fight for Survival
Implications for Business and China’s Political Future
Xi’s absence from the BRICS summit and the disappearance of key military figures have led to a wide range of rumors. Some suggest that Xi may step down or become a figurehead, while others believe he remains firmly in control.
Official sources confirm that the Communist Party’s Political Bureau recently reviewed new regulations on party institutions, which some ***ysts see as preparations for a potential power transition.
However, there is no formal announcement of any leadership change. The Chinese government continues to project an image of stability, but the lack of transparency fuels uncertainty both inside and outside the country.
For international businesses and investors, these developments signal heightened risk. China’s leadership faces internal challenges that could affect policy consistency, regulatory enforcement, and the broader investment climate.
The ongoing purges and leadership reshuffles may disrupt established networks and decision-making processes, making it harder for foreign firms to navigate the Chinese market.
At the same time, China’s economic slowdown and trade tensions with the United States add further uncertainty. Companies with significant exposure to China must monitor these political shifts closely and prepare for potential changes in the business environment.
The Global Ripple Effect of China’s Political Uncertainty
The real story behind the recent rumors is not just about Xi Jinping’s personal fate. It is about the durability of China’s current political system and the stability of its leadership.
The ongoing power struggle within the military and the Communist Party has direct implications for China’s economic direction, its role in global trade, and the prospects for foreign businesses operating in the country.
As the world watches for official announcements and further developments, the only certainty is that China’s leadership faces a period of unusual turbulence.
