NFL playoff picture, Week 14: Packers boot Bears from atop NFC; Broncos keep pace with Pats

The Chicago Bears’ reign atop the NFC didn’t last long; their hated rivals made sure of that. After seizing control of the top spot last weekend, the Bears fell all the way down to the No. 7 seed after losing to the Packers, 28-21, in Green Bay. With the win, the Packers blockumed control of the race for the NFC North crown and jumped to No. 2 in the conference, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams, who easily dispatched the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday to claim the No. 1 spot.

In the AFC, the Denver Broncos pushed their winning streak to 10 by downing the Raiders in Las Vegas. The Broncos and New England Patriots now not only boast identical 10-game winning streaks but also have matching 11-2 records. For the moment, the Broncos own the No. 1 seed in the AFC by virtue of having the superior record (7-2 vs. 6-2) in conference games, but there’s still plenty of time for that to change.

Let’s take a look at what else happened around the NFL in Week 14.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, win the division and secure the No. 1 seed are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs with the top seed in each conference securing a first-round bye. Go check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to play out your favorite team’s path to the playoffs. 

Denver Broncos

Denver beat the Raiders, 24-17, which qualifies as a blowout by the Broncos’ standards. They won their previous four games by a total of 10 points, and it was just the Broncos’ fourth win by more than four points all season. Give them credit, though. They’ve won 10 in a row because they’re unfazed in the tightest moments.

Next three weeks: vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs

New England Patriots

The Patriots, who enjoyed their bye this week, can secure their first AFC East title since 2019 if they can knock out the Bills on Sunday. After finally finding their franchise quarterback in the post-Tom Brady era, it’d be symbolic if the Patriots and Drake Maye could clinch the division by sweeping the Bills. And to really drive the point home, a strong game from Maye would do a ton for his MVP candidacy — with the reigning MVP on the opposing sideline. There’s potential for Allen-Maye to turn into one of the great QB duels of the next decade.

Next three weeks: vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have won four in a row after blowing out the Colts and potentially even driving a stake through Indy’s season. And while you don’t get a lot of style points for beating the Colts these days, particularly when Daniel Jones left early with an Achilles injury, the Jags did exorcise a couple of demons. They finished strong against a division opponent, which isn’t nothing a month after getting outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter against the Texans. And the Jaguars didn’t let off the gas against a backup quarterback, which happened in Week 2 when Jake Browning relieved Joe Burrow and walked off the field a winner for the only time this season. Signs of growth like these are noteworthy for an unproven team.

Next three weeks:  vs. Jets, at Broncos, at Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers

Tuck the Steelers’ obituary away in a drawer for the time being, as they withstood the Ravens’ comeback bid in a 27-22 win. The Steelers’ maligned defense kept Ravens QB Lamar Jackson out of the end zone over the final four possessions, including two scoreless possessions to finish off their hated rivals. The Steelers have an easier slate before their finale against the Ravens, but they also haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 3-6. While the victory in Baltimore was a nice Band-Aid, the Steelers still haven’t hit their groove.

Next three weeks: vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns

Buffalo Bills

The Bills improved to 3-1 this season when giving up at least 30 points, which is absolutely not normal, as they were 4-13 when surrendering 30 points from 2019 to 2024, including playoff games. And while the Bills have had their fun, it’s probably best to avoid the high-wire acts from here on, considering they’ve surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game over their last five playoff losses.

Next three weeks:  at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers, who host the Eagles on “Monday Night Football,” need an uptick in takeaways to get their defense to the next level. They’re third in yards allowed and No. 11 in points, so they’re stingy enough. They’re also inside the top 10 in sacks, so they’ve got that element. But the Chargers have forced only 13 turnovers, with nine coming in three games. Perhaps they’ll enjoy a bit better luck down the stretch.

Next three weeks: vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys

Houston Texans

It wasn’t pretty, but the Texans continued their surge Sunday night with a mblockive road victory against the Chiefs. They’re 8-2 since opening the season with three losses, and they’ve used a five-game winning streak to leapfrog the Colts for the final playoff spot in the AFC. If the Texans’ offensive line can help QB C.J. Stroud play to his potential, the Texans could be as dangerous as anyone in the conference.

Next three weeks: vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders, at Chargers

In the hunt

• Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
• Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
• Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (6-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

Eliminated

• New York Jets (3-10)
• Cleveland Browns (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
• Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams made easy work of the Cardinals, who have seven one-possession losses this season and just hung tough against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. So that seems to be a fair indication the Rams’ loss to the Panthers last weekend was more of a blip on the radar than a crack in the armor. Next up, the Rams could severely damage the Lions’ playoff hopes, something they’d love to do after the Lions eliminated them from the 2023 postseason.

Next three weeks: vs. Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons

Green Bay Packers

The Packers dropped their first two games in November and were a half-game ahead of the Niners for the final NFC playoff spot with critics openly questioning coach Matt LaFleur’s future. They’ve since used a four-game winning streak to seize control of the NFC North and the No. 2 seed, though upcoming trips to Denver and Chicago will make it tricky to stay up top. The Packers are 2-1 against current playoff teams, so they’re still somewhat of a mystery despite their talent and potential. The closing stretch will provide some answers about their playoff prospects.

Next three weeks: at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles, who visit the Chargers on Monday, have already had a productive week with the Cowboys’ loss. If the Cowboys win their last four games, the Eagles would wrap up their second consecutive NFC East title by finishing at least 3-2.

Next three weeks: at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have dropped four of five after a disappointing home loss to the Saints, but they’ve maintained the slightest edge over the Panthers due to their record against common opponents. That tiebreaker won’t be worth anything if the Bucs don’t figure it out before closing with two of three against the Panthers, who have won six of their last nine games.

Next three weeks: vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks overcame a sleepy start in Atlanta to rout the Falcons and maintain the second-best record in the NFC. Problematically, that’s good for only the fifth seed right now. The Seahawks can’t blockume the Rams will slip up again, which means the NFC West rivals’ Week 16 showdown is essentially worth a playoff victory. The winner will be in control of the No. 1 seed, while the loser will look at opening the postseason on the road, likely against the NFC South winner.

Next three weeks: vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners, who moved up one spot in the NFC pecking order while on the bye, have a one-game edge on the 8-4 Lions, who are just outside the playoff picture. And the 49ers have room for error because they’re two games clear of the Lions in the tiebreaker, which would be record against NFC foes. Detroit has a slightly more difficult remaining schedule, too.

Next three weeks: vs. Titans, at Colts, vs. Bears

Chicago Bears

The Bears dropped a tough one to the Packers, 28-21, and plummeted from No. 1 to the seventh seed as a result, but that’s been life in the NFC North for a couple of years. Still, the Bears proved they belong in the mix with that performance in Green Bay, using their formula of physicality on the ground to open options for quarterback Caleb Williams in the pblocking game. Williams’ final interception was a bad underthrow in the end zone, but he made enough electric plays to keep the Bears afloat.

Next three weeks: vs. Browns, vs. Packers, at 49ers

In the hunt

• Detroit Lions (8-5)
• Carolina Panthers (7-6)
• Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
• Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Eliminated

• Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
• New Orleans Saints (3-10)
• Washington Commanders (3-10)
• New York Giants (2-11)