Fact Check: An independent Alberta is not an American Alberta

Blogger Dave Cournoyer wrote a piece banging the usual drum of pending American annexation if Alberta were to choose to become independent.

The risk of the big bad Americans marching in militarily is no higher with an independent Alberta than it is under the Canadian banner. Unless it is to be pretended that Canada’s antiquated, woke military has been the deterrent keeping American expansionism at bay. The USA has never expressed a serious interest in taking over Alberta despite some inflammatory rhetoric from individual American politicians.

As far as economic sovereignty is concerned, again Canada falls rather short in protecting that. Catastrophic trade negotiations from Ottawa have left the Canadian economy pressured and ravaged. Over a decade of federal opposition to developing more infrastructure to allow resource exports to go overseas has led Canada to being overly dependent upon American purchasers.

That dependence has allowed President Trump to ragdoll Prime Minister Carney in negotiations, and it is decimating the central Canadian automotive industry. A refusal to bend on supply management for fear of upsetting Quebec has also contributed to the trade imp***e. Would Alberta really be worse off cutting its own deals?

The industries being targeted in the current trade war are transferable. Whether it’s fair or not, Trump is pressuring manufacturing companies to move south of the border and with great effect. Those tactics don’t work with resource-based economies, however.

While the USA relies on Canadian oil and gas, it can’t simply move those industries south. They must purchase the products and they do so at a discount because Canada has refused to develop overseas export ability. Again, could Alberta do worse? A hungry, post-Alberta independence B.C. would likely be very receptive to a fast-tracked pipeline or three to the coast.

Most Alberta independence advocates themselves reject statehood as the goal as do most Americans. Logistically, it’s nearly impossible even if the will was there. Joining the USA as a state would require congressional approval, political bargaining over Senate seats and Electoral College votes, and acceptance of the full U.S. constitutional and fiscal framework. It isn’t happening.

Alberta’s oil and gas already flow overwhelmingly south; the economic relationship is deep whether the province remains Canadian or not. Independence would force *** renegotiation rather than continued reliance on Ottawa’s bargaining posture.

The October referendum is not a binding declaration of independence. It’s a vote on whether to begin a further process. Treating that conversation as sleepwalking into colonial status underestimates both Alberta’s leverage and the capacity of its people to set terms.

The relevant question is whether Alberta can secure more effective control over its resources, fiscal capacity, and policy direction outside Confederation than inside it. Canada’s rather underwhelming performance so far doesn’t inspire confidence that economic sovereignty will be protected under eastern Canadian leadership.