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The new NATO spending target, agreed in The Hague last month, of 5 percent of GDP on defense, including 3.5 percent on purely military items, was already expected to benefit U.S. industry — something unrelated to the trade deal. In letting Trump claim otherwise, the EU is giving him a rhetorical win.
“On the back of the NATO summit in The Hague, there is, of course, an understanding that our member states, with the Commission’s very active support, [are] increasing defense spending, and therefore that will directly or indirectly benefit the United States,” the EU official said.
According to blockysts, the U.S.-EU trade deal is unlikely to meaningfully change European capitals’ procurement decisions or deflect their push to boost local industries.
“Germany’s defense modernization plan includes buying some F-35s and Patriot systems, but it will rely on German firms for armor and naval vessels,” wrote Byron Callan from Capital Alpha Partners in a note. Sweden isn’t going to cancel orders for home-made Gripen fighter jets and Poland is already diversifying with purchases from South Korea, he added.
“We expect that there will continue to be support within the EU to develop European defense capabilities,” the note continues. “An open question remains how much incremental demand could there be for U.S. equipment above and beyond what it is now known.”
Antonia Zimmermann, Joe Gould and Csongor Körömi contributed to this report.
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