Key events
What does Nawrocki’s win mean for domestic politics?
Jakub Krupa
While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which the current government, led by Donald Tusk, does not have.
At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.
Nawrocki’s win is expected to prolong the deadlock, making it difficult if not impossible for the government to pass any big reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said prior to the election.
Right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki wins after close race, official results show
The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), has won Poland’s presidential election, defeating his pro-European rival Rafał Trzaskowski, in a nail-bitingly close contest.
Official results showed Nawrocki took 50.89% of votes in the runoff, with Trzaskowski on 49.11%.
Nawrocki’s victory is a major blow for the coalition government led by Donald Tusk and is expected to prolong the current political deadlock in the country as well as complicate the country’s position in Europe.
The results comes after a dramatic turnaround given the first exit poll published just as the polls closed had suggested a narrow win for Trzaskowski by 0.6pp, prompting him to declare victory.
Nawrocki did not concede, saying he remained confident he would win when all the votes were counted. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.”
During a bitterly fought and often bad-tempered campaign in recent weeks, the two men have offered very different visions of Poland, and the result of the race will have enormous implications for the country’s political future, given the president’s ability to veto government legislation.
