Netanyahu Needs the Large Numbers of Ultra-Orthodox Men

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a critical dilemma that exposes deep tensions within Israeli society and politics.

His government depends heavily on the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties to maintain a fragile coalition, yet the ongoing war in Gaza demands more soldiers—especially from the fast-growing ultra-Orthodox community, which traditionally avoids military service.

The ultra-Orthodox make up about 13% of Israel’s population but represent nearly a quarter of Jewish 18-year-old men eligible for conscription today, a share expected to rise to over 27% by 2030.

Despite this, fewer than 10% enlist, and only a handful have responded to draft orders issued since a Supreme Court ruling mandated their conscription.

The exemption system, originally intended for a small number of religious scholars at Israel’s founding, now shields tens of thousands annually, fueling public frustration amid the war’s heavy toll.

Netanyahu’s coalition relies on two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, whose political support is vital but conditional on preserving these exemptions. These parties have threatened to bring down the government unless their demands are met.

Netanyahu Secures Narrow Win with Ultra-Orthodox Pact

The opposition has sought to capitalize on ultra-Orthodox dissatisfaction and broader public calls for fairness by pushing a bill to dissolve parliament and force early elections.

In a tense parliamentary vote, Netanyahu narrowly survived after striking a last-minute deal with ultra-Orthodox leaders. The deal postpones the draft law debate and promises further negotiations, allowing the government to avoid collapse.

The vote to dissolve parliament failed 61 to 53, and no new dissolution motion can be introduced for six months. This standoff reveals Netanyahu’s precarious balancing act: he needs the ultra-Orthodox to stay in power but cannot compel them to serve without risking his coalition’s collapse.

Meanwhile, the military struggles to meet manpower needs in a war that has already claimed hundreds of soldiers’ lives. The unresolved draft issue threatens Israel’s security and political stability, with implications for the economy and the country’s future.

Netanyahu’s survival depends on managing these competing pressures, but the underlying conflict over military service and social equity remains unresolved. This issue will shape Israel’s political landscape and national cohesion well beyond the current conflict.