Labour’s growth strategy comes down to difficult decisions on tax

Good morning. Today is the comprehensive spending review, which will set departmental budgets and priorities for the next few years. We will have a lot more on what is in it tomorrow and in the coming days, weeks, months and years. Although much of the contents have been trailed already, I prefer not to write about the politics of something that hasn’t happened yet when possible.

For now, some thoughts on two things I will be looking out for, and one thing I won’t.

Cash splash

Are these the right priorities, economically and politically?

Labour has significantly increased the amount that the UK spends on infrastructure. It has promised £113bn of extra capital spending over the parliament. This is welcome, but not all “infrastructure” is created equal. Nuclear power, a tried-and-tested form of clean energy, which the government has already announced it will back, is infrastructure. But so too is the third runway at Heathrow, whose growth case is in my view highly unconvincing and which cannot be reconciled with the UK’s climate targets.

So I will be looking at not just numbers but places and projects.

Do these day-to-day spending settlements look deliverable, and if not, when do they suggest Labour’s moment of reckoning may be?

Today’s spending review essentially sets the government’s big picture spending decisions into the final phase of the parliament. It is among the most consequential things the government will do politically. But as successive prime ministers have learnt since 2015, saying what you will spend (or not spend) is one thing, sticking to it is quite another.

So one thing I will be looking at is where and when the cuts to some parts of the state might bite, and how quickly Labour might have to retreat. (After its retreat on the winter fuel allowance, I don’t believe this government is really going to be able to grit it out on any spending reductions, though “grit it out” is currently the Downing Street view on what it needs to do on welfare reform.)

But ultimately a lot of this depends on how Labour gets out of its hole on tax

Taxes are ultimately a matter for Budgets, not spending reviews. But a big part of Labour’s growth strategy — and the effectiveness of the infrastructure spending we are going to see announced later today — is whether Labour’s handling of its difficulties over tax and spend help or hurt its plans for infrastructure and growth.

Now try this

I saw Ballerina, the new film set in the John Wick universe, and it was almost exactly what you want from one of these films: needlessly arty gunfights, and a barely-there nonsensical plot. Admittedly, the single best sequence is a straight lift from the strikingly beautiful overhead shot in John Wick 4, but it still looked lovely. Danny Leigh’s right that it lacked the playfulness of earlier entries but it’s nonetheless worth seeing if you enjoyed the earlier films: on as big a screen as possible.

Top stories today