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He pointed to the continent’s struggling automotive industry as a possible beneficiary of more military investment. It is “more than prepared to satisfy the increased defense spending” by producing the necessary equipment.
Šimkus said that issuing EU joint debt could also help channel European household savings — which amount to €1.4 trillion annually versus €800 billion in the U.S. — into more productive investment. In recent years, money looking for high returns has generally gone to the U.S., which is home to the world’s most innovative companies, but also home to the world’s most efficient capital market, underpinned by a huge and liquid market for ‘safe ***ets’ such as government bonds.
Economists such as former ECB chief Mario Draghi have called for Europe to create an ***ogous market for safe ***ets in Europe, arguing that it would make the capital market much more user-friendly, increasing the supply of collateral for loans and expanding the possibilities for hedging risks. A bigger market for EU debt could serve this purpose, Šimkus said.
Lithuania hasn’t always been so supportive of joint EU spending: along with the other Baltic states, which suffered the deepest recessions in the EU after the 2008 financial crisis, it had little enthusiasm for the bailouts of Greece and other southern European countries between 2010 and 2014.
But the revival of the Russian threat has led to a major rethink on the EU’s eastern flank, embodied by former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who, as the EU’s Defense Commissioner, has played a large role in getting the SAFE program up and running.
That change of heart has chipped away at the bloc of countries that consistently resisted a bigger role for EU debt in the past. However, as Šimkus acknowledged, significant obstacles still remain. The project continues to be regarded with suspicion by countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
“It’s a very political question and it’s a very complex question,” he admitted.
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