Growth Holds But Momentum Slows

Brazil’s services sector, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), has shown steady growth through early 2025 but now faces signs of deceleration.

The services sector is vital for Brazil’s economy, accounting for over half of its gross domestic product and employing millions. In February 2025, the sector grew 0.8% from the previous month, and stood 16.2% above pre-pandemic levels, though still 1% below its October 2024 high.

This growth continued a trend, with the sector expanding 4.2% year-on-year in February and maintaining positive rates for eleven consecutive months. This expansion was broad-based.

Information and communication services led with a 1.8% monthly increase, while professional, administrative, and complementary services rose 1.1%. Other services grew 2.2%, and services provided to families increased 0.5%.

The transportation sector, however, saw a 1.8% drop in January, highlighting some volatility within segments. Regionally, 21 out of 27 states reported service sector growth in February.

São Paulo and Mato Grosso made the largest contributions, while Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais posted slight declines. Over the year, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and the Federal District drove most of the gains, while Rio Grande do Sul experienced a notable contraction.

Brazil’s Services Sector Shows Signs of Slowdown

Despite this resilience, recent data points to a slowdown. In April 2025, the sector grew only 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 5.9% expected by markets and a drop from the 6.5% rate in March.

On a monthly basis, services contracted by 1.6% in April. The transportation segment shrank by 4.4%, and information and communication services slipped 1%.

The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI also fell below 50 in April, indicating contraction for the first time in months. The OECD projects Brazil’s GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2025, with services expected to remain the main driver, though at a slower pace.

Inflation, driven in part by services, will likely stay above target. Tighter monetary policy and less fiscal stimulus could further moderate growth.

The real story is that Brazil’s services sector has bounced back strongly from the pandemic, but momentum is fading. Businesses and investors should watch for further signs of slowdown, as the sector’s health will shape Brazil’s economic outlook.