(Analysis) Brazil’s political scene is changing fast. A new survey shows that the number of Brazilians who support former president Jair Bolsonaro now matches those who back current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Just a few months ago, Lula’s supporters had a clear lead. Now, both groups stand at 35%. This shift happened quickly, reflecting a larger pattern seen in countries like the United States, Argentina, and Germany, where conservative movements have gained ground over left-leaning parties.
Bolsonarism, the movement around Bolsonaro, started gaining strength after the political and economic crisis of 2014. Many Brazilians lost trust in traditional parties and turned to Bolsonaro’s message of national pride, family values, and a tough stance on crime and corruption.
Even after losing the 2022 election and facing legal troubles, Bolsonaro’s base stayed loyal. His supporters see him as a defender against what they call the “system”—a strategy that has kept them united and motivated.
The rapid rise of Bolsonarists is not unique to Brazil. Around the world, conservative and nationalist parties have grown by promising to protect jobs, control borders, and defend traditional values.
In the United States, Donald Trump’s movement changed the Republican Party and national politics. In Argentina, Javier Milei’s libertarian and conservative campaign won the presidency.
In Germany and other European countries, right-wing parties have gained support by focusing on national identity and skepticism toward globalization. This global trend has roots in economic and social changes.
Brazil’s Political Shift Reflects Global Conservative Surge
Many people feel left behind by globalization, automation, and rapid cultural shifts. Conservative leaders have tapped into these frustrations by promising practical solutions, stronger borders, and a return to traditional norms.
In Brazil, this has meant more support for religious and family values, as well as skepticism of progressive social policies. The shift is also clear in Brazil’s Congress.
Evangelical politicians, who often support conservative causes, now hold a quarter of seats in the lower house. This group opposes issues like abortion and gender equality, and has become a powerful force in shaping policy.
The right’s growing influence in Congress means that even if Lula’s government wants to push new social programs, it faces strong resistance. For business and investors, this shift signals uncertainty but also opportunity.
Conservative governments often promise deregulation and pro-business reforms, but they can also bring abrupt policy changes and trade tensions. The deep divide between left and right in Brazil means that political and economic volatility is likely to continue.
Brazil’s political story now mirrors a global one: yesterday’s socialism is giving way to today’s national conservatism. As Bolsonarists catch up and may soon surpblock Lula’s supporters, Brazil joins a worldwide movement that is reshaping politics, society, and business.
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