Bolivia’s Government Threatens Military Intervention

Bolivia’s Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo issued a stark warning of potential military action to protect democratic stability ahead of August 2025 elections, citing escalating protests by supporters of former President Evo Morales.

The announcement follows clashes between police and Morales loyalists demanding his reinstatement as a presidential candidate, despite a constitutional ban.

The crisis stems from a bitter split within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Morales, president from 2006 to 2019, seeks a fourth term despite a 2023 court ruling barring him.

Current President Luis Arce, Morales’ former finance minister, struggles with collapsing natural gas revenues (-34% since 2020) and a $4.9 billion public debt. Foreign reserves have plummeted to under $2 billion, down from $15 billion in 2014, triggering inflation at 8.82% and fuel shortages.

Protests turned violent in May 2025 after courts reaffirmed Morales’ ineligibility. Police used tear gas against crowds blocking roads and storming electoral offices.

Meanwhile, truckers and business groups plan nationwide blockades over dollar shortages, paralyzing supply chains. The IMF reports GDP growth slowed to 2.1% in 2024, with unemployment rising despite Arce’s subsidies.

The military’s role remains contentious. A June 2024 coup attempt led by General Juan José Zúñiga exposed fractures within armed forces. Troops briefly occupied La Paz’s government square before retreating under domestic and international pressure.

Morales accused Arce of staging the coup to boost popularity, while Zúñiga claimed external actors sought control of Bolivia’s lithium and gas reserves.

Economic desperation drives migration, with thousands fleeing to Peru and Chile. Border towns report 70% business closures as inflation erodes purchasing power.

The crisis highlights risks for foreign investors, with energy sector inflows down 67% since 2020. Analysts warn unchecked military involvement could destabilize South America’s poorest nation, where 47% live below the poverty line.

Arce’s government now faces an impossible choice: deploy troops to ensure elections proceed or risk total institutional collapse. With MAS divided and Morales mobilizing rural bases, Bolivia’s fragile democracy hangs in the balance.