Argentina’s Peso Finds Rare Stability as Milei’s Shock Therapy

Argentina’s financial markets delivered a rare sight on June 11, 2025: the peso traded at 1,181.99 per US dollar, with the blue dollar rate virtually identical.

This near-zero spread, confirmed by official sources and chart data, marks a dramatic turnaround from years of currency crisis and signals the impact of President Javier Milei’s radical reforms.

Milei inherited an economy plagued by triple-digit inflation, a chronic fiscal deficit, and a currency in free fall. Within months, he slashed public spending, eliminated the fiscal deficit, and devalued the peso by over 50%.

This “chainsaw” approach, as described by analysts, has already produced Argentina’s first fiscal surplus in 16 years, while inflation has dropped from over 280% to below 50% year-on-year.

The International Monetary Fund responded with a $20 billion program, and the country’s risk premium has narrowed sharply.

The technical picture matches the new macro reality. On both the 4-hour and daily charts, the USD/ARS pair shows tight consolidation just above 1,180, with moving averages clustering and price action sticking close to an upward support line.

The MACD indicator sits flat near zero, reflecting a pause in momentum. The Relative Strength Index hovers around 50, signaling a balanced market.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, confirming reduced volatility and a market that has found equilibrium after months of turbulence. Market sentiment has shifted. The blue dollar, once a barometer of distrust and capital flight, now trades in line with the official rate.

This signals restored credibility in Argentina’s currency regime and reflects improved confidence among both domestic and foreign investors.

Argentina’s Market Stabilizes Amid Economic Rebound

The Merval index has soared, bond spreads have tightened, and capital controls are being eased as reserves recover. Fundamentals support this technical calm. GDP is expected to grow by more than 5% in 2025, reversing two years of recession.

Consumption and investment are rebounding, and the government’s fiscal adjustment—amounting to 15% of GDP—has set the stage for a more sustainable recovery.

Risks remain, including the need for further reforms and the challenge of maintaining public support amid ongoing austerity. However, the rapid collapse of the parallel market spread and the stabilization of the peso stand as tangible evidence of a market and economy in transition.

Argentina’s currency market, once defined by crisis and volatility, now shows signs of discipline and renewed optimism. The story behind the numbers is not just one of stabilization, but of a country rapidly rewriting its economic narrative through aggressive reform and a return to market principles.