Indiana is No. 1, ACC and Alabama are on bubble and more College Football Playoff takeaways

The 12-team College Football Playoff bracket will be revealed Sunday afternoon after a wild Saturday in which Indiana, Texas Tech and Duke emerged as Power 4 conference champions alongside blue-blood Georgia, raising a few questions heading into the final bracket reveal.

As of late Saturday night, our Playoff projections model viewed Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech as locks to get first-round byes, with Oregon, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Tulane safely in the field. Notre Dame (close to a lock) and Alabama were favored over Miami for the final at-large bids, with James Madison a virtual lock over Duke for the final automatic bid.

So how did Saturday impact the Playoff race? Our experts provided their CFP takeaways as each game ended.

ACC: Duke 27, No. 17 Virginia 20 (OT)

The ACC’s nightmare scenario is here. Unranked Duke, a five-loss team overall that finished in a five-way tie for second with a 6-2 ACC record, knocked out Virginia despite the Cavaliers scoring 10 points in the final four minutes to force overtime. Given that five conference champions were ranked above Duke last week, the ACC may be out of the Playoff entirely, unless Miami jumps ahead of Alabama or Notre Dame to claim an at-large bid. Read more about the game here.

It’s come to this: Duke or Dukes?

Will the committee give the fifth and final conference champion automatic qualifying spot to the ACC champion Duke Blue Devils, or will it send the Sun Belt champs and No. 25 James Madison Dukes to the CFP?

JMU (12-1) defeated Troy 31-14 on Friday night to cap a dominant run through the Sun Belt. Duke (8-5) won its first ACC crown since 1989 with a dramatic 27-20 overtime victory over Virginia, the first OT title game in ACC history. The fact that James Madison was ranked last week ahead of the conference championship and Duke was not suggests JMU has the inside track, and we’ll actually get two Group of 5 teams in the 12-team field, with the ACC (probably) on the outside looking in.

What we don’t know is how the committee viewed Duke in last week’s rankings, and whether a conference championship win over No. 17 Virginia is enough for the Blue Devils to jump JMU on Sunday. Duke will harp on the strength of schedule argument — 60th compared to 124th, according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock — and the fact that it has seven power-conference wins compared to zero for JMU. But the Blue Devils having five losses is tough to overlook, including defeats at Tulane and at UConn.

JMU’s only loss of the season was to Louisville, an ACC opponent, back on Sept. 5. Of course, Duke didn’t face Louisville this season, so there is no common opponent data point.

JMU and head coach Bob Chesney — who will be the next head coach at UCLA, but will coach the Dukes through the Playoff — probably won’t breathe easy until they see their name pop up in that bracket. — Justin Williams

The ACC is on the brink of disaster

The ACC has two paths to the CFP, and neither looks great. The 8-5 Blue Devils must leapfrog the Sun Belt champs, No. 25 James Madison, to earn an auto-bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. That seems unlikely.

The other option is an at-large bid for No. 12 Miami. The 10-2 Hurricanes have a solid argument to end up on the right side of the bubble. Two of the teams in front of them (BYU and Alabama) lost by 20-plus points Saturday. They have a head-to-head win over another team ahead of them, Notre Dame, and beat a common opponent Alabama lost to (Florida State). But the committee hasn’t seemed overly impressed by Miami. Will its idle weekend change much?

If the Blue Devils and Hurricanes are both left out of the field — a realistic possibility — it’s hard to overstate how disastrous this would be for the ACC, beyond missing out on the $4 million a conference gets per CFP participant. Despite the ACC’s basketball roots, its future depends on football success because football drives revenue. Getting left off the college football’s biggest stage would further weaken the ACC’s reputation as the industry braces for another potential wave of conference realignment in the 2029-32 range.

The conference needs to do everything it can to elevate its football product and keep big brands like Florida State and Clemson from leaving. Instead, the ACC’s champion will almost certainly lag behind a Sun Belt team in its fourth FBS season, and its top-ranked team (Miami) might not get the benefit of the doubt over a Notre Dame team that’s an ACC member in every sport but football. This snub would be even worse for the league than 13-0 Florida State missing the four-team field in 2023. — Matt Baker

Big Ten: No. 2 Indiana 13, No. 1 Ohio State 10

Indiana toppled an AP No. 1 team for the first time, beat Ohio State for the first time since 1988, won the Big Ten title for the first time since 1967 and locked up the No. 1 seed in the Playoff as the nation’s lone remaining unbeaten team. Quite a night. Read more about the game here.

Indiana has earned an improbable No. 1 seed

If you doubted the state or parity in college football, just think about this: Texas Tech just won the Big 12 for the first time and Duke won the ACC with five losses … and none of that is crazier than the fact that Indiana just beat Ohio State to improve to 13-0, win the Big Ten and essentially earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and head to a quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl.

It became obvious months ago — after a blowout victory against Illinois — that the Hoosiers were here to stay after a feel-good 2024 Playoff appearance and an 11-2 season. But Curt Cignetti somehow managed to elevate the program to another level in his second season. Indiana erased so many doubts with its October win at Oregon, which has a roster filled with blue-chip prospects. Beating a reigning national champion Ohio State squad that breezed through the regular season and had not trailed in the second half in any game entering Saturday was a much more profound statement.

College football has its issues. The calendar is broken. A coach just left his program right before the Playoff. Tradition, which is the sport’s trademark, has become less important over the past few years. TV networks hold a tremendous amount of sway. But teams like this year’s Indiana and the sheer absurdity of a program that is one of the most prolific losers in the history of the sport climbing toward the top of the game is the sort of magic that pulls everyone back in every Saturday. — Antonio Morales

CURT CIGNETTI AND INDIANA LIFT THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP TROPHY 🏆@IndianaFootball pic.twitter.com/YLVH6MBQoG

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 7, 2025

How should we feel about Ohio State’s repeat attempt now?

The Buckeyes finally proved beatable on Saturday, though it took a stellar defensive effort from Indiana, the only other unbeaten team in the country.

The biggest concern coming out of Ohio State’s loss was the empty red zone possessions in the second half. The Buckeyes engineered two extended drives to get inside the Indiana 10-yard line and emerged without points both times. That was the difference.

Ohio State scored just twice on four red zone possessions on Saturday and, dating back to the Michigan game, the Buckeyes have scored only two touchdowns on their last seven red zone trips. That’s not going to be good enough as the competition stiffens in the Playoff, so that’s an area to watch as the Buckeyes move on to the postseason.

Should Ohio State hit the panic button after Saturday’s loss? Absolutely not. As the 2024 Buckeyes showed us, the Playoff is a new season with a clean slate. They limped into the CFP last year, engulfed by noise surrounding Ryan Day after losing to Michigan then turned around and bullied their way to the national championship. The Buckeyes have been a much more consistent team throughout this season and still have the roster talent to rekindle a second straight run, with future NFL Draft picks all over the field.

Despite the Big Ten championship game setback, Ohio State is still well-positioned to make a deep run in the bracket. Favorite or not, the Buckeyes are one of the nation’s best teams. — Sam Khan Jr.

Did Fernando Mendoza secure the Heisman Trophy?

As both Mendoza and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin struggled to generate explosive plays early on Saturday night, it appeared that there may be enough momentum for someone not playing this weekend — perhaps Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love or Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia — to emerge as the Heisman Trophy favorite as voting opened on Saturday. But Mendoza may have done enough in the second half to put his candidacy over the top in the second half.

He led the Hoosiers to a win over the previously unbeaten Buckeyes with the help of two impressive throws. The go-ahead touchdown, a back-shoulder fade from Mendoza to Elijah Sarratt with 8:02 left in the third, was perfectly thrown. Late in the fourth, with Indiana needing a conversion third-and-6 to move the chains and keep the ball away from the Buckeyes for a potential game-winning drive, Mendoza threw another picturesque p*** down the right side to Charlie Becker for a first down that essentially sealed the deal.

What a throw, and what a catch 😲

No. 2 @IndianaFootball is starting to feel it.

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/zzSr8yQn1h

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) December 7, 2025

Mendoza’s numbers weren’t eye-popping by any stretch. He finished 15-of-23 p***ing for 222 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. But his toughness and poise on Saturday — and throughout this season — is hard to ignore. Time and again, Mendoza has delivered for the Hoosiers. And the fact that he led Indiana to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten championship and soon-to-be the No. 1 ranking in the country is a pretty strong case in itself.

With ballots due in less than 48 hours, Mendoza may have done enough to secure Indiana’s first Heisman win. — Khan

SEC: No. 3 Georgia 28, No. 9 Alabama 8

Georgia avenged a September loss to Alabama to win its third SEC title in four years and lock up a first-round bye. The Bulldogs controlled the game and didn’t allow Alabama to score until the fourth quarter, which will spark a second consecutive bubble debate about Alabama after the Crimson Tide were the first team out last year. Read more about the game here.

What does the win say about Georgia?

The Bulldogs have a good chance at the No. 2 seed behind the Big Ten champion, which would send them to the Sugar Bowl for a Jan. 1 quarterfinal. The SEC Championship Game victory puts Georgia at 12-1, and a win against Alabama in a rematch means the Bulldogs have beaten every team they’ve faced this season.

Georgia’s defense is peaking as it heads into the Playoff, too. The Bulldogs have held their past four opponents (Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Alabama) to 10 points or less, and Alabama finished with negative rushing yards. No opponent has scored more than 21 points against Georgia since Oct. 18. So the Bulldogs are heading toward a first-round bye, their defense will be a difficult test in any potential Playoff matchup and Georgia has proven it will be one of the favorites to win a third national championship under Kirby Smart. — Morales

Why Alabama might still be safe

The best argument for keeping Alabama in the Playoff with an at-large bid, should the committee (or anyone) choose to make it, is one college football has historically struggled with: valuing the quality of victories over the number of losses. Yes, the Tide (10-3) now have three losses after their no-show in the SEC Championship Game, one more than No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2), No. 12 Miami (10-2) and No. 11 BYU (11-2). Alabama also has the better overall resume than each of those teams when you factor in who it beat.

A pair of wins against No. 3 Georgia (on the road) and No. 14 Vanderbilt, plus victories over Missouri and Tennessee to finish out that run, are stronger than No. 10 Notre Dame and Pitt (Miami), No. 16 USC and Pitt (Notre Dame) or No. 15 Utah and No. 18 Arizona (BYU). And two of Bama’s three losses were against Playoff teams in Georgia (neutral site) and Oklahoma. We’ll see how the metrics adjust in light of Saturday’s loss, but entering the weekend, Alabama had a better strength of schedule than Notre Dame, Miami and BYU, and a better strength of record than the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes.

The committee has stated teams that lose a conference title can drop in the rankings, though it does seem unfair to penalize a team too harshly for reaching championship weekend — something Miami failed to do and Notre Dame has chosen not to be able to do — and falling to a top-three opponent. It is more than fair to ding the Tide for losing to seven-loss Florida State in what is easily the worst defeat among the at-large bubble teams. But the committee has had no problem distancing its rankings from a Week 1 result between Notre Dame and Miami, so there’s no reason to believe it won’t extend that same courtesy to Alabama.

Our projections agree, giving Alabama an 83 percent chance to get a bid compared to just 17 percent for Miami.

For the second year in a row, there will be little sympathy for a three-loss Alabama team that gets left out of the Playoff, outside of Tuscaloosa and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey. But if the committee decides to keep them in, the strength of the Tide’s victories is the only defensible reason why. — Williams

Why Alabama should be left out

The CFP selection committee wouldn’t really punish conference finalists last year but changed its tune this year. That could (and should) be bad news for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide will likely find themselves battling Notre Dame and Miami for the final two at-large spots. I think Alabama’s case is the weakest. The Crimson Tide’s best win (24-21 at Georgia in September) was just avenged. Their two-score victory over Vanderbilt still holds up, but wins over Missouri and Tennessee are no longer against ranked opponents.

Not only does Alabama now have more losses (three) than the Hurricanes and Irish (two each), but the Crimson Tide have bookended their season with the two worst defeats of the bunch. Saturday’s SEC championship showing was rough. Notre Dame and Miami lost their four games by a combined 13 points. Alabama lost by 21 while finishing with negative rushing yards for the first time ever.

Don’t forget about Alabama’s season-opening 31-17 defeat at Florida State, either. The 5-7 Seminoles were among the nation’s most disappointing teams. CFP selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said this week that Texas’ loss to a similarly bad Florida team was “holding them back.” The same logic should apply to Alabama’s loss to Florida State … whom the Gators beat last week. The committee is supposed to consider results against common opponents, which weakens Alabama’s case even more. A month after the Tide fell to FSU in Tallah***ee, Miami beat FSU in that same stadium in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates (28-22).  — Baker

Big 12: No. 4 Texas Tech 34, No. 11 BYU 7

Texas Tech fell behind 7-0 in the first quarter but easily captured its first Big 12 championship, scoring 34 unanswered points to punch its ticket to the Playoff. Read more about the game here.

Notre Dame (and Miami) couldn’t have asked for better results

First, Texas Tech removed the most important obstacle from Notre Dame’s Playoff path on championship weekend: two Big 12 teams getting in. The Red Raiders’ blowout win means BYU probably won’t even be a talking point on selection Sunday.

Then, if the committee counts the results of conference championship games and standard data points in its final rankings, it’s hard to imagine another better result for Notre Dame than Georgia blowing out Alabama. Last week, committee chair Hunter Yurachek said the Notre Dame-Alabama debate was on the razor’s edge and some committee members still had the Irish above the Crimson Tide.

Now?

Notre Dame came to its own defense before the weekend, believing that Alabama’s tight win at Auburn shouldn’t have flipped the teams last week. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said there was “confusion” in how the committee described the flip of their No. 9 and No. 10 teams. Athletic director Pete Bevacqua seconded that sentiment on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Friday. If the Irish and Tide really were that close, Georgia’s decisive win felt like a tiebreaker, which, on top of BYU’s loss, could not only send Notre Dame into the CFP, but make the sport’s breathless debate of the past month moot.

A group of University of Miami supporters are flying a banner near the CFP hotel in Grapevine, TX today.

The banner reads “H2H Matters. Miami in.” pic.twitter.com/7A6SjV6ytl

— Front Office Sports (@FOS) December 6, 2025

Miami won a Week 1 head-to-head meeting, but Notre Dame has been ahead of Miami since the CFP rankings began — though the gap continues to close and could shrink even more if Saturday’s results are enough for BYU, and maybe even Alabama, to slip behind both. In the end, maybe the answer will be Notre Dame and Miami, not or. At the very least, our projections say Notre Dame should feel confident. — Pete Sampson

How far can Texas Tech go?

Texas Tech and its $25-million roster came into the season with Big 12 title and CFP-or-bust expectations. Mission accomplished. And the Red Raiders are good enough to do more than just qualify for the Playoff.

Texas Tech appears to have secured a first-round bye with its dominant win in which it held the Cougars to 200 total yards and forced four turnovers. It should be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, depending on how far the Big Ten title game loser falls.

Regardless of seed, Tech is talented and balanced enough to compete with anyone in the country, with a dominant, top-three defense that gets after the quarterback and an offense that leads the FBS in plays of 20-plus yards. The biggest question mark has been the health of quarterback Behren Morton, who missed two games and parts of others with a nagging leg injury, including the lone loss to Arizona State. Morton, who finished 20 for 33 for 215 yards and two touchdowns against BYU, entered the championship game as healthy as he’s felt all season, and now gets a three-week break before the next game.

The defense will be the equalizer in Texas Tech’s title pursuit, led by FBS sack leader David Bailey (12.5 sacks) and Butkus Award-winning linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. The Red Raiders have allowed fewer than 11 points per game this season, with each win coming by at least 22 points.

Tech won’t be the CFP favorite, but no one in the field wants to line up across from that unit. — Williams

BYU is on the outside looking in

BYU entered Saturday’s game on the outside looking in, as the first team outside of the bracket in the latest CFP rankings. A win would have gotten the Cougars in, but even a narrow loss to a top-five Texas Tech team — had the Cougars played well — could have given BYU at least an argument for sneaking into the field.

The Cougars’ performance left them no outs. They had an impressive opening drive, covering 90 yards in 14 plays to take an early 7-0 lead. But that was pretty much all BYU could muster against Texas Tech’s elite defense. No possession after the Cougars’ first went more than 47 yards, and BYU got sloppy, turning the ball over four times. It managed just 110 yards in the final 53 minutes, 10 seconds of the game.

The game played out a lot like Texas Tech and BYU’s first meeting on Nov. 8, when the Cougars were suffocated and couldn’t get much going at all against the Red Raiders’ defensive front.

For the second straight year, BYU had an impressive season worthy of CFP consideration. Last year, BYU went 10-2 before winning the Alamo Bowl, and this year the Cougars are 11-2. Their resume isn’t bad; they have good wins over No. 15 Utah and No. 18 Arizona. But given that the committee had them outside the bracket before Saturday’s Big 12 championship, it’s unrealistic to imagine a path for them to get in after losing by 24 points and looking as rough as they did. — Sam Khan Jr.

Group of 5 championship results

American: No. 20 Tulane 34, No. 24 North Texas 21

Tulane (11-2) locked up a spot by winning what was effectively a play-in game for a College Football Playoff bid. It should be the No. 1 seed, meaning a first-round road game, perhaps at Ole Miss.

Sun Belt: No. 25 James Madison 31, Troy 14

James Madison (12-1) is in position for an unlikely second Group of 5 bid to the Playoff, which grants automatic spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions. JMU could earn that last automatic bid after Duke (8-5) beat Virginia, ***uming the Blue Devils stay behind JMU in the committee’s rankings.

Conference USA: Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15

Kennesaw State improved from 2-10 in its first FBS season last year to 10-3 in Year 2 with a conference championship under first-year coach Jerry Mack, who will take the Owls to their first bowl game.

Mountain West: Boise State 38, UNLV 21

Boise State won its third consecutive Mountain West title under Spencer Danielson after beating UNLV for the second time this season. The Broncos are 9-4 and won’t be heading to the Playoff for the second year in a row, with the LA Bowl instead their probable postseason destination.

MAC: Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13

Western Michigan (9-4) earned its first MAC championship since P.J. Fleck was the coach in 2016, while the RedHawks fell to 7-6.