Opinion | Never Underestimate the Houthis

Perhaps they were biding their time. Because of a quirk of geography, the Houthis are able to disrupt commercial traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a choke point at the entry to the Red Sea, through which 12 percent to 15 percent of maritime trade travels. At the other end of the Red Sea lies the Suez Cblock, a vital route for oil and liquefied natural gas headed to North American and European markets. With Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are now in an unusually powerful position.

They have come far in global influence since seizing Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014 and expelling the internationally recognized government from the city in early 2015. When the rebel forces pushed south in March of that year, in an attempt to take over territory in southern Yemen, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and backed by the United States intervened.

The once localized war became a regional conflict and a devastating humanitarian crisis. Finally, facing a stalemate and significant international pressure, both sides agreed to a U.N.-brokered cease-fire in April 2022. By that point, the Houthis had created a de facto state in northern Yemen, while the weak Saudi-backed government nominally ruled parts of the south and west.

The Houthis flexed their muscles by attacking shipping vessels in the Red Sea early in the Israel-Gaza war that started in 2023. Using low-cost, low-tech equipment like one-way attack drones, missiles and unmanned surface vessels, the Houthis made the crossing more dangerous, driving up the cost of insuring commercial ships as much as twentyfold, effectively closing the strait. The only alternate route forced ships around the southern tip of the African continent, an extra 4,000 or more nautical miles, increasing shipping costs.

Last month, the Houthis resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, striking Saudi-linked commercial oil tankers and hitting Saudi energy and transportation infrastructure. They were responding to what they claimed were Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa Airport’s runway on July 13, seemingly in an effort to prevent an incoming Iranian flight from landing. For now, commercial ships continue to transit the Red Sea, although tanker traffic has declined substantially over the past month. Houthi attacks have also continued on ships the group claims are Saudi-aligned, and an attack on a cargo ship on Aug. 12 included the first reported fatalities of this latest round of attacks.