Opinion | What It Will Take to Win the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary

The winner in South Carolina will have had to run up support with Black voters and will have the momentum heading out to Nevada — but will also be under extreme pressure to preserve strength with Black voters throughout the early gantlet and especially in the final early state, Virginia. It will be essential for the other survivors from South Carolina to gain Black vote share, and they will have four very different state contests in which to build the momentum they need to do it.

The 10 days between South Carolina and Nevada will seem like 10 years for the field, which will shrink to three or four candidates. To remain strong, the South Carolina winner will have to perform well with, if not outright win, Hispanic and union voters — small cohorts in South Carolina but critical in Nevada and states to follow. Other candidates would have a good chance to break through. Nevada went to Senator Bernie Sanders in 2020, suggesting that a candidate such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would have to win to come in a strong second there to have any chance at the nomination. Westerners such as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Arizona senators would be expected to have strong showings, and if they don’t, the air will come out of their balloons quickly.

If the same person wins South Carolina and Nevada, that candidate will be the dominant front-runner. If someone else wins Nevada, the contest is set up to be highly competitive. Even a candidate who finishes a strong second in Nevada, attracting support from Hispanic and union voters, will have reason to continue.

On to New Hampshire, where a totally different candidate could win. Candidates who struggled with voters of color but did well in suburban areas, such as those around Charleston, S.C., or Henderson, Nev., could mop up in places such as Nashua and Keene. New Hampshire voters are also famously contrarian, and independents play a large role in the primary. A candidate like Pete Buttigieg might finish third in South Carolina and Nevada but excel in New Hampshire, earning the right to continue in the race. But continuing won’t do much good if that candidate fails to win voters of color in later contests.

New Mexico is next. The state probably won’t decide the nomination, but it could end candidacies. A candidate who has won only the Nevada primary needs to win New Mexico, where Hispanic voters make up considerably more of the electorate than in Nevada. If one candidate wins South Carolina and Nevada, stumbles in New Hampshire but then wins New Mexico, he or she will be in pole position heading into the next state, Michigan.